PDA

View Full Version : NFL 2009 week 19 - DIVISIONAL



minhblvd
01-13-2010, 01:56
Record 2009 = 15-21-1
Playoff record = 2-2

Kỳ này bắt 4 trận nhưng bận quá, đăng từ từ cho bà con bàn nghe...

1. ARI at NO -7/57

ARI (11-6) O#6; D#19; ST#12
- 10-7 ATS, 11 Under, 6 Over
- Kurt Warner 4137 yds, 67.58% comp, 7.58 y/a, 32 tds, 14 ints, 98.8 rating
- Matt Leinart 435 yds, 66.23% comp, 5.65 y/a, 0 tds, 3 ints, 64.6 rating
- Last playoff 2/1/09 – Super Bowl XLIII - Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
- Blow out JAC, SEA, CHI, stl
- 58% Arizona +7, 63% over 57

NO (13-3) O#3; D#22; ST#25; Big gap
- 8-8 ATS. 9 Under, 7 Over. Lost 3 last games, not cover 5 last games, never covered when favored 9 or more points. Last 4 games went Under.
- Drew Brees 4388 yds, 70.62% comp, 8.54 y/a, 34 tds, 11 ints, 109.6 rating
- Mark Brunell 102 yds, 50.00% comp, 3.40 y/a, 0 tds, 1 int, 44.0 rating
- Last playoff 1/21/07 – NFC Championship – Chicago 39, New Orleans 14 = Hungry
- Blow out det, PHI, BUF, nyj, nyg, TB, ne

Both teams don’t have backup QBs.
Both teams offense is about timing = it is defense to win
Both QBs are great. Drew Brees is younger and eager to win his first super bowl, playing at home. Kurt Warner used to be an arena football QB and played in Saint Louis dome.
The bye week hurts NO offense and helps the defense. Defensive Coordinator Greg Williams will blitz Kurt Warner. NO offense has too much rest = their timing will be off = under
No team that has scored 50 points has come back with more than 24 points in the next round. NO defense has rest, time and tape to study = Arizona cannot move the ball like last week.
NO has 3 more blow-outs than ARI including Phila, nyj, nyg, and ne = play very well at home.
Though ARI plays away very well with blow out against JAC, SEA, and CHI; those are much weaker teams.

Edge analysis:
Season record NO
Blowout record NO
Home field NO
QB equal
Defense equal
1st PO in 3+ years NO
Bye week NO

PICK NO -7

Có ai có ý kiến gì về over/under trận này không? Tui thấy cửa Under sáng hơn ...

Dien Ba Quang
01-13-2010, 06:19
Kurt Warner used to be an arena football QB and played in Saint Louis dome. :good:
But remember he was the super bowl winner QB for Saint Louis RAM also.:76:

minhblvd
01-15-2010, 00:13
2. BAL at IND -6.5/44

BAL (10-7) O#10; D#2; ST#4
- 9-7-1 ATS, O/U 7-9-1.
- Joe Flacco 3647 yds, 62.67% comp, 7.17 y/a, 21 tds, 13 ints, 87.3 rating
- Before last week playoff 1/18/09 AFC Championship - Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 14
- Blow out kc, cle(2), den, det, chi, NE(wildcard) = play extremely well at home
- Consensus 52% Baltimore +6.5, 52% over 44

IND (14-2) O#5; D#13; ST#22
- 10-5-1 ATS. Lost last 2 regular season games, O/U 9-7, last 3 games went Over.
- Peyton Manning 4500 yds, 68.83% comp, 7.88 y/a, 33 tds, 16 ints, 99.9 rating
- Last playoff 1/3/09 Wild card - San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT)
- Blow out ARI, sea, TEN, STL = Play well away

Bal has more blow outs but the opponents were so weak while IND could blow out the strong ARI and TEN.
Last 3 weeks, Bal went to Pittsburgh, Oakland, then NE, now IND = they must be tired now.
Bal defense still play with a lot of heart = better than IND.
This time Flacco must carry the team = QB edge goes to IND Peyton Manning b/c IND defense has a lot of time to study Flacco, plus, last week Baltimore win over NE was mostly running and defense score.
IND still remembers last year loss to SD in OT, at home = won’t let that happen again.

Season record IND
Blowout record bal 7-4
Home field IND
QB IND
Defense bal
1st PO in 3+ years <na>
Bye week IND

First game after the bye week is shaky for the home team. Baltimore still has a 50% chance to win this game. IND defense is not as good as Baltimore so they will be equally matched. I think Baltimore defense will be exhausted in the 4th quarter and Manning will cover. BAL needs to score 20 points to go Over. I think they can.

Pick IND -6.5

minhblvd
01-15-2010, 01:07
3. DAL at MIN -2.5/45.5

DAL (12-5) O#4; D#5; ST#13
- 10-7 ATS, 7-10 O/U
- Tony Romo 4727 yds, 63.25% comp, 8.08 y/a, 28 tds, 9 ints, 98.0 rating
- Back up QB is Jon Kitna = garbage from Cin, Detroit, Dallas. He never plays this year.
- Last playoff 1/9/10 Wild card – Philadelphia 14, Dallas 34
- Blow out atl, sea, oak, WAS*, phi*, phi (wildcard) = 6

MIN (12-4) O#11; D#17; ST#16
- 9-6-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U
- Brett Favre 4202 yds, 68.29% comp, 7.88 y/a, 33 tds, 7 ints, 107.0 rating
- Back up QB Tarvaris Jackson 201 yds, 66.67% comp, 9.57 y/a, 1 td, 0 int, 113.4 rating
- Last playoff 1/4/09 Wild card - Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
- Blow out CLE, DET(2), STL, sea, chi, cin, nyg = 8
- Consensus 55% pick MIN -2.5, 62% pick Over 45.5

Season record = MIN
Blowout record = MIN 8-6
Home field = MIN
QB = same
Defense = Dallas
Bye week = MIN

Dallas has 6 blow-outs but almost all of them at home and only Philadelphia is good.
MIN has 8 blow-outs including 2 pretty good teams Cincinnati and NY Giants. Backup QB Tarvaris Jackson has better numbers than Brett Farve = the team is good, not because the QB.
MIN RB A. Petersons only has 3 100-yard rushing games this year but one of them against Baltimore defense at MIN = he can play well at home. With the extra rest, he should be a force. He can catch too.
MIN is undefeated at home this year and the spread is only -2.5 points?
Dallas has won and covered the last 4 games. When was the last time you won 5 straight weeks on a team?

Did you know that Brett Favre has never beaten Dallas in playoff?
He lost in 94, 95, and 96; all in Dallas. Do you think he wants revenge?

According to my calculation, MIN has a 2-to-1 chance to win this game.
Plus, my #1 rule is never to pick against Peyton Manning or Brett Favre.

Pick MIN -2.5

Both teams have great offensive weapons. Why the O/U only 45.5? What do you think?

minisoda
01-15-2010, 02:05
theo dog hết là chắc ăn

mb508
01-15-2010, 05:33
khong can noi ra cung biet MINHBLVD se bat game #4 favor luon roi ; satuday bat 2 thang dog la an chac
sorry ; cai pc nay old qua nen o bo dau duoc ;

minhblvd
01-16-2010, 01:17
Em b508 đoán rất đúng, nhưng để tui giải thích tại sao, vì đầu tuần tui rất kết thằng NYJ.

4. NYJ at SD -7/42

Note: line moves from -9 to -7.

NYJ (10-7) O#22; D#1; ST#14
- 10-7 ATS, 8-8-1 O/U
- Mark Sanchez 2626 yds, 55.03% comp, 6.95 y/a, 13 tds, 20 ints, 66.3 rating
- Back up QB Kellen Clemens 125 yds, 50.00% comp, 4.81 y/a, 0 td, 0 int, 63.8 rating = started for the injured Sanchez week 13 and 14 at BUF and TB; and won both = NYJ has better back up QB.
- Last playoff 1/9/10 Wild card – NYJ 24 – Cincinnati 14
- Blow out HOU, OAK*, TB, IND, cin* = 5

SD (13-3) O#2; D#14; ST#21
- 8-7-1 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U
- Philip Rivers 4254 yds, 65.23% comp, 8.75 y/a, 28 tds, 9 ints, 104.4 rating
- Back up QB Billy Volek 231 yds, 64.52% comp, 7.45 y/a, 1 td, 1 int, 84.2 rating = playing against WAS and KC; both bad teams.
- Last playoff 1/11/09 Divisional - Pittsburgh 35, San Diego 24
- Blow out KC, DEN, kc, TEN = 4
- Consensus 50% pick SD -7, 63% pick Over 42

Season record SD
Blowout record nyj 5-4
Home field SD
QB SD
Defense NYJ
Bye week SD

My calculation says NYJ has a 22% to win this game SU compared to 6% for SD. Let analyze to see IF it makes sense.
After starting 3-3, SD never lost another game. 2 of those losses were at home against Baltimore and Denver (both not covered). At home, SD did not cover Cincinnati and Oakland either. It could only blow out the lowly kc at home = very shaky home field advantage against run + good defense team.
NYJ has better blow-out record, most of them are on the road (solid defense teams do that). NYJ is a defense oriented team. That is why Sanchez rating is so low. Last year playoff, SD also had home field and a bye but lost to Pittsburgh (also a good defensive team). However, 2008 Pittsburgh was better than this year NYJ because of QB Roethisberger.
SD clearly has better QB. He should be better than last year and more experience, more mature. 28 tds with only 9 ints = pretty awesome.
NYJ has covered the last 3 games. Perhaps the game against IND should not count b/c IND gave it away. So, NYJ only covered Cincinnati = nothing great.
SD has a bye week to prepare while NYJ has to travel far away after a relatively short travel to Ohio.

The spread starts out at SD -9 but it is SD -7 now.
I would pick NYJ if it is +9 but now, I pick SD -7. I like the under on this game because SD can be rusty + nervous + NYJ defense still very strong and hyped up in the first half.
I think NYJ will keep it close with defense but when SD is warmed up, SD will score easily.

Pick SD -7

bubblesgun
01-16-2010, 09:19
thoi dep cai dăng nay cua bạn di, cho 2 tran thu 7 wild card hay qua, toi bo het tien xuong chủ nhat thu khong con mot cắt, toi dổ het tien xuong thang NE va GreenBay, cả 2 dieu di an chuoi

newbie_y2k
01-16-2010, 11:08
thoi dep cai dăng nay cua bạn di, cho 2 tran thu 7 wild card hay qua, toi bo het tien xuong chủ nhat thu khong con mot cắt, toi dổ het tien xuong thang NE va GreenBay, cả 2 dieu di an chuoi

Cha này nói chuyện nghe lạ, sức chơi sức chịu ... Ở đây người ta chỉ bàn tán thôi, nếu ông thiếu tin tưởng chính bản thân thì đừng có chơi
:fighting28:
Thắng thì cười hả hê, thua thì kiếm người đổ thừa .. sao giống con nít quá
:lele:
Đi chổ khác chơi đi cha nội

Be a real man ... buddy

newbie_y2k
01-16-2010, 11:09
Ủng hộ đội nhà .. Oánh Dallas, chết bỏ

mb508
01-16-2010, 12:22
game 4 giờ 57 điểm o biết low or high đây

xlarge
01-16-2010, 12:31
game 4 giờ 57 điểm o biết low or high đây

Tuần trước 4 games Over, tuần này hơi khó đoán .Chắc go low

mb508
01-16-2010, 15:36
thua bà nó rồi (bắt arizona với under) mới hết 1 quater 21-7 ; thôi canh gỡ lại 2 half

minhblvd
01-16-2010, 16:16
2nd half di NO tiếp. Kurt warner bị thương rồi .

bublegum
Chú thua GB với NE chắc tui thắng hả? Tui cũng thua như ai thôi .
Forum để bàn, càng bàn nhiều, mới thấy đương ăn chứ?

xlarge
01-16-2010, 16:17
Trái nữa xong hàng
chơi NO -7
Under 57
Thua tiền ngu, tính game tối nay mới ra over không ngờ

QHNM
01-16-2010, 16:20
ngày mai thằng Jets nó upset SD cho coi hehehe

mb508
01-16-2010, 16:57
2 half ; đệ bắt thằng n orlean -4 ; hy vọng gỡ lại

QHNM
01-16-2010, 17:01
saints giàn offensive của nó đánh ghê quá nhưng nó chọi hơi nhiều no good.. nó không kill được clock gặp đội có giàn defense mạnh thì nó chết .. vô chọi 3 phát không dính là đi ra

bubblesgun
01-16-2010, 17:53
nói choi cho vui thoi cha noi, vo day la de choc may ong thoi, chu ai khong biet co choi co chịu, noi vay de ban nao co long tin cho toi them suc song

bubblesgun
01-16-2010, 18:00
cái cửa over gióng như đang cái cầu, 5 game liền rồi chưa gẩy, mấy bạn thất game tối nay under hay over vậy

mb508
01-16-2010, 18:01
tối nay đánh thằng baltimore đi bà con ; nhờ trời thương hồi chiều đánh ngược lại thằng cardinal 2 half nên thua tiền ngu cũng đỡ

mb508
01-16-2010, 19:42
need help for 2 half ;

mb508
01-17-2010, 07:39
bữa nay phải theo MINHBLVD 2 thằng để gỡ lại ; còn game 1 giờ chắc bắt over

mb508
01-17-2010, 14:29
God ... please help me ;I bắt san diego 1 half -5.5 +final -9 luôn ; thua bữa nay là hết bà nó tiền mua tã cho con

minhblvd
01-17-2010, 14:41
Cha nó vô game SD chấp 9 lại, deo biết bắt luôn .... kệ chơi thêm 1 cái over 43, 9 điểm nhiều quá ... nó ra 2 cái under làm tui thua lại luôn .. con bà nó!
mb508, SD first half cũng có lý lắm nghe.. good luck ..

mb508
01-17-2010, 16:16
MINHBLVD 2 Half co idear gì o ? chắc bắt thằng diego nữa quá

minhblvd
01-17-2010, 19:01
SD chơi như sht. Tui sẽ không bao giờ bắt thằng stupid Rivers & Norv Turner nữa!
Vegas tuần trước thả cho 4 cái over, tuần này giết lại 3 cái under liên tiếp, thua hết trơn.
Record tuần này 3-1
NO = thắng
IND = thắng
MIN = thắng
SD = thua

Rút kinh nghiệm, phải control, nếu tui đánh theo pick của mình thôi, đừng cộng thêm Over thì thắng nhiều hơn .... Ba cái reverses hại vô cùng!

Playoff 2009 record = 5-3
Ráng nghiên cứu đi anh em, tuần sau gỡ.

xlarge
01-18-2010, 13:24
ngày mai thằng Jets nó upset SD cho coi hehehe
ông này lâu lâu phán cũng trúng ,tuần tới coi chừng Indy bỏ game giống San Diego nữa